Three transmission channels we refuse to blur
Rates, FX, and equities respond on different clocks. Mixing them into one “market reaction” paragraph hides the decision you actually need.
Clients sometimes ask for a single paragraph on “how the market will react.” We decline that shape. In our macroeconomic indicator impact reviews, rates, FX, and equities each get their own transmission note, even when the conclusion is that one channel dominates.
The clocks differ. Policy-sensitive front-end rates can move within minutes of a surprise. Equity sector leadership often needs a full session or more. FX can lead or lag depending on whether the print revises the policy path.
Blurring those clocks produces confident prose and weak desks. When we write scenario paths, we timestamp the channel: immediate, same session, and multi-day. That discipline is dull on the page and valuable in the room.